A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
