Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
